The Sky is Falling

The Doom and Gloom predictors are at large these days, telling everyone that real estate prices in the Greater Toronto Area are going to drop. And they may, however any price decrease should be minimal and short lived. The one thing that is going against the real estate markets in the Toronto area, including Richmond Hill, Aurora and all of York Region, is low consumer confidence. Unfortunately this low consumer confidence issue is mostly unsubstantiated. Yes the stock market has had a major correction and the DOW Jones looks like an EKG chart but most of the economic factors that support a strong real estate market are still here.

One of the biggest misconceptions currently going around is that the real estate markets have slowed down to the point of being a strong buyer's market. It is true that the number of sales in 2008 are lower that 2007 and even a little off of 2006 numbers. However, historically speaking the sales volume is still very high. A great analogy for our market sales was given at the Toronto Real Estate Board's annual general meeting on Monday Oct 27th. It was that the 2007 real estate sales were like driving on the 401 at 150 clicks (obviously not during rush hour) and now we have slowed down to 120 Kph. We are still moving very fast but it seems slow compared to what we were going. As it is the Toronto area real estate markets are still aiming for about 80,000 sales in 2008 which is a volume that was only reached starting in 2004, so historically still very high.

They also talk about rising inventory levels. However the inventory levels in the Toronto real estate markets is still under 4 months supply. This means that if no new homes are put on the market and sales remained the same it would only take 4 months to run out of available homes. This is well within the range that indicates a balanced market not a buyer's market. So unlike some areas in the U.S.A where there are as many as 12 months supply, we are far from over stocked in homes. We may not see huge increases in price this year but if people don't panic then we also should not see major price reductions, except on homes that are over priced to start with.

Other factors to consider are mortgage rates which are still very low, and unlike some areas of the U.S.A. mortgages are still readily available here in Canada. Speaking of mortgages, our banking systems are much different here in Canada when compared to the U.S.A. and as a result are in a much stronger position than their counterparts south of the boarder.

Also consider that unemployment is still very low, and the rate of foreclosure is only about 0.25% according to CMHC as compared to 1992 when it was close to 6% and currently in the States where foreclosure rates are close to 20%. It is believed that the number of speculative buyers is significantly lower than back in 1989 so that should not be a huge flood of homes on the market especially since our rental markets are still very strong. We also still have a large volume of new immigrants into the Toronto areas, creating demand for homes both in the rental and purchasing sectors.

All in all our economy is healthy but it is being rattled around by uncertainty. Now is actually a great time to buy a home as it is a much better investment that the current stock market, unless you can correctly guess which way it will move today, and because some sellers and their agents are buying into the hysteria and looking at and even accepting offers that are lower than would have been the norm a few years ago. It is also expected that our economy will start growing again as early as 2010 so buy now and for the long run (5+years ) and you should see a good return on your investment especially over renting.

For real estate help in Richmond Hill, Aurora, York Region and Toronto please visit my website or call me at 416-278-2335 and start finding the right home for you.